Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
